A simple Bayesian method for assessing the standard error of equivalent dose estimates

Abstract

Estimating the equivalent dose (ED) value is critical to obtaining the burial dose for Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating. In this study, a simple Bayesian method is used to assess the standard error of an ED value in a linear or an exponential model. An ED value is treated as a stochastic node that depends on a random variable whose posterior distribution can be constructed and sampled. The results show that the Bayesian approach may improve the precision of an ED estimate by avoiding the repeated curve-fitting procedure employed in the routine “parametric bootstrap” Monte Carlo method.